Friday, March 24, 2006

Tim Norton.........DONUTS....did someone mention DONUTS



Jab, who is a really funny guy posted this in the comment section last week......so I thought I would throw in my two cents.....


Those you know me well....know that back in 1990 I threw every penny I had at the Outback Steak House on it's IPO. During several workshops across the US from 1995 to 1997, we would all go out to dinner after listening to some market guru on trading to the Outback.....and of course, there was always a line of hungry steak lovers waiting. I would walk up to the hostess station and pop out a special little pass that was sent to me because of the number of shares we owned and it just kept spliting by the way....and we would get our seats next......every time. The guys would ask ....how did you do that.....and being the funny guy I am....I would say something like....it's my charm or good looks....yada yada yada.

I sold out of the Outback when they changed their menu to include sandwiches and one in four was buying them instead of a nice steak....the average ticket dropped and earnings came under pressure and so on....but we had bailed when a waitress was going off on her tips....which turned out to be a great tip or heads up for me.

When KKD did it's IPO we loaded the boat again......and we all know that story. Split after split and up to 42 bucks yada yada yada. Then one day as I drove in for a fast cup of coffee and a couple of my favorite treats the girl asked me what size.....what kind of coffee....cream and sugar.....blah, blah, blah. KKD had changed their business model to compete with Starbucks and now had 4 kinds of coffee in several sizes and "THEY" put the cream and sugar in. I like just a little cream in my coffee by the time I got home I was so pissed off about trying to get just a cup of coffee I called my stock broker and sold it all.....


But this Tim Horton IPO is not the play......it's not a start up, a growth company like OSI in 1990 or KKD in 2000. The dang thing has a zillion stores already, I didn't even know you could even have 2,600 units in Canada. It is a spin off of Wendy's who bought it back in 1995 and is now cashing in, as very smart move.


The real stock to buy isn't THI in my book, but, WEN who still owns 85% of THI and buying it back Feb. on a setup and riding it for the "buy the rumor, sell the news" idea worked out fine it seems to me.

Wall street is a shell game and they can move those little walnut shells around very nicely. Did you buy AIR or DAL on Sept. 21, 2001. I always look for the other side of the trade.....anyone shorting today......THANKS MON

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Lets just hope the stock doesn't become "Timbits" LOL remember Nortel, JDSU etc etc