Tuesday, July 31, 2007

IT'S TIME.......Would you like to come?????


I have stated in the past that after we finished building our nightmare....I mean DREAM, I would like to have a Trade-a-Long. A no Bullshit three days adventure into the minds....not selling anything....nothing to buy just two days of some theroy and then I'll trade live based on a trading plan we will develop, yes....trade live. Real money.....real time.....and just for the record everytime I have done this...I HAVE MADE A PROFIT AT THE END OF THE DAY!!!!!

So let me know if there is enough interest in this to actually get it setup....OH YEA, there will be fee.......On Monday before the market opens you will need to write a check to one of three local charities I support....you decide on how much this info is worth to you. You make the check out to them....hand it to them....and you also will receive a reciept that is tax deductable.....

This workshop is how I actually trade everyday....not made up for a workshop...but the real food fight so let me know.....just leave a comment and instead of me posting it....I'll email you back....so be sure to include your email so I can send you some info on where you can stay and how to get here....

This could be the last weekend in Sept.....

Monday, July 16, 2007

Still looking for that trading plan......


There are two groups, one that blows into town, loads up some software, open an account at some broker were you can trade low margin, get on a chat room somewhere and is ready to follow someone in order to walk the yellow brick road. Well, within a couple of weeks they are gone......just a shooting star.

Then you have a group, that works on actually developing something called a trading plan. Where they read articles, study charts, talk to fellow traders about a number of things, join a user group, paper trade, open an account and trade one contract or maybe even two......doesn't matter how much money they could throw at the market.

The sad reality of these two groups is simple. We could agree the first group is out of here, you can see it coming. But the second group, there is still only a 10% chance of success. I hear those odds all the time.....90% will blow out at some point and that might be true. But consider this, William Dennis, senior research fellow for the National Federation of Independent Business' Education Foundation analyzes a survey of 36,000 households each year for the Wells Fargo/NFIB Series on Business Starts and Stops. The latest one, available on the NFIB's Web site, www.nfibonline.com, reported that 2.9 million businesses were launched in 1997, involving nearly 4 million people. Another 1 million people purchased 700,000 existing businesses that year. The NFIB estimates 39% are profitable, 30% break even, and 30% lose money. Their data showed that annual failure rates were greater than 9% when failure was defined simply as "discontinuance of ownership." The authors also concluded that cumulatively 64.2% of the businesses failed in a 10-year period.

All you have to do is drive down your own Main Street and think of all the businesses that have come and gone, while you are on your way to Starbucks. So having a 90% failure doesn't mean you will fail does it. I remember back in 2001 during the TradingMarkets.com conference in Las Vegas, Louis Borsellino was a guest speaker and talked about this.....he even went on to say that of the 10% that are left standing only 10% of them will reach the level they all dream about. But, after giving out these odds only 2 people got up and left out of 300. So you do believe in yourself, your education and your ability to reach your level of desire.

But where are you looking, in all the wrong places......?????

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Who would have guessed that the worst day of your life...was just a new beginning!!


Most people outside of Kansas have long forgotten the events of May 4th,2007 when a tornado visited Greensburg, KS and destroyed around 90% of the town....long forgotten and distance memories now.......Over 960 homes out of the 1,700 are gone, of the 140 businesses 24 are no more. Twelve people lost their lives that afternoon as sounds of a train came roaring thru Greensburg all in a matter of minutes. But what if the worst day of your life was just a new beginning?

Just like in New Orleans, some of the side effect of these kinds of disasters involve our four legged friends and companions........

It's always interesting as to how someone or something can survive this, but their she was....hungry and scared.

Oh and not just one, but animals were found roaming around a city that was no more.

But just like in New Orleans it wasn't long before you had a new friend to talk to....to listen to their story....and to take a nap with.....

And to share your lunch with, now if we could just get a bath!!

Did I mention that we allowed those other folks to join us.....and like when we were kids and had that "secret club" that didn't allow girls......well things change don't they?

So here we are, all 5 of us just sleeping in a car but you know......The things we learn from our animal friends...

If only all of mankind could learn such valuable lessons as this. Lessons of instant friendship. Of peace and harmony by way of respect for one another -- no matter one's color or creed. These animals tell you... "It's just good to be alive and with others." Yes, it surely is. So... Live, love, laugh.
"Life's a Gift... Unwrap It!"

Swing Trading with a bunch of Woodies CCI Club Monkeys


SWING TRADING
Once upon a time in a village a man appeared who announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for 10 rupees. The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys
went out in the forest and started catching them. The man bought thousands at 10 and
as supply started to diminish and villagers started to stop their effort he announced that now he would buy at 20 rupees.

This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.
Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to 25 and the supply of monkeys became so that it was an effort to even see a monkey let alone catch it. The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at 50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business
his assistant would now buy on behalf of the man. In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers "Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at 35 and when the man comes back you can sell it to him for 50."

The villagers queued up with all their savings and bought the monkeys. The assistant promptly vanished the next day leaving a village full of monkeys....JAB

The only problem with being a monkey is simple.....if the account size required is only $2,780.00 and the max intraday drawdown is $2,780.00 then I think "HOUSTON, we have a problem". The other problem is, of course, the winning percentage is a whopping 44.5% what happened to this 80%...90%.....winning ratio. Think it's time to go back to the basic....

This performance summary doesn't include something called COMMISSIONS.....remember commissions.....you pay them when you win, you pay them when you lose. Wonder how much that would be on a thousand and eithty trades maybe you could ask the Woodies CCI Club about that...they should know.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

July 4th weekend


So what do you say while you are just standing there.....looking around and this walks up to you and says "HELLO". Lordy, Lordy, Lordy and a yada yada yada I guess.

Dang kids these days.....

Day trading the holy grail......WOW


I guess the big question for the day is this.....did you hear the train coming down the tracks before you leaned into a long trade or not?

OH, up until noontime one could talk themselves into a long...but if you used the idea of symmetry....well you would have been lookin south of the border all day today......so don't be scared it's only money...RIGHT???

Day trading and using the holy grail is there a CCI here?



Just as it happens so many times, we have a retest of the low into a higher time frame support or symmetry and the market stalls at one of the fibonacci numbers and turns on a dime.

Today as the market retested the low around 11:15am it did come down to the .786 retracement and couldn't make it thru the low pivot of 10:45 and back in your face it came...the trials of a daytrading maniac. But by using and understanding fib levels you can enter your setup.....manage the trade and of course stay out of trouble.

Day trading and it just keeps on tickin


Well low and behold we have a secondary entry at "B"......a small Gartley or two step into resistance and the CCI is there....the stoch is there and we are feeling just fine....

There is caution in the wind however, as we also have made it down to the 15m symmetry support on the higher time frame and this may only be a retest of that low so when the market gets down to .786 of this last swing is where the marekt can hold and fly back in your face. So there is caution in the wind now.

Day trading with the holy grail


Yesterday the market was not kind, but this morning is another day, did I change the way I trade because I didn't make a million yesterday.....I don't think so. Did I run out and buy the latest greatest piece of research to filter out the losers.....I don't think so. Did I cry and whine in some chat room about how the stuff I use didn't work yesterday.....I don't think so.

I just sat down with my cup of joe and a fresh baked sweet roll, and waited for opportunity. I drew in the symmetry which is the holy grail times the holy grail which ends up being "ONE". So a measure and equal move of the last set of swing is where we find "A" from yesterday afternoon. Low and behold the CCI had a "zero line reject" CCI being set to 50/9, which I found after 26 years of solid research yada yada yada.....but there it was.

That little double smooth stoch that I use was also overbought at the time and that is all I need to take a trade. The risk is just a tick above the pivot high and the trigger is when the low was taken out on the setup bar without taking out the high of the setup bar. Simple as that.

Monday, July 09, 2007

Day trading nightmare........did the CCI help??


I think we can all agree on one thing....or maybe even two.
1. We can all get caught overtrading and at the end of the day you go...WHAT
THE "BANJO" WAS I THINKING?
2. We can all get caught leaning in the wrong direction.
3. We can all miss the setup and then miss the entire move.
4. We can all get stopped out, and can't get right back in the trade in the
same direction 8 seconds later even on a setup....
That was today, the first bar idea was a bust so now I'm behind the eight ball looking to get even. I use fibonacci levels to find safe low risk setups 90% of the time. These levels act like support and resistance and a lot of times they are magnets to speak....the market will run to them and turn on a dime. So over the years I have developed with screen time a feel for it.

First I look at the 15 minute fibonacci levels, .618 retracements, symmetry and extensions and today we had an extension just above the market. COOL, I thought and when the high of the first bar was taken out, well I had my money counted. But it failed and stopped me out. While this was going on there was bullish symmetry

sitting right there at the 859.40 and 859.10 area to take a trade against. Between 9:40 and 9:45 the ticks had pulled back to zero and again I was starting to count my money.....at point "1", but got stopped out before I could blink an eye....now I am 0-2-0 for the day and still wanting to get even.

The next setup for me was when the market came down to the mother cluster from the 15 minute for support. My little paint bars started humming along and when the ticks went from negative territory to positive and up to 400 and back to zero...(TAZ), I said to myself, "This is it baby", and pulled the long trigger again. Then it happened, "THEY" and I'm never sure who they really are BUT...."THEY" went for the stops under that level. You can see that clearly as the bar closed on the low and the next bar...3 minutes later closed...way higher. A classic Haggerty 1-2-3 pattern. I was like....DAMN DAMN DAMN DAMN and !#%)!$%^*!#$^!$&!~)$*(!$^!(!~)_.

But that is OK, I thought....0-3-0 and it's only 11:00am. So, when the market came up to number3 and into 3 minute and 15 minute bearish symmetry I was waiting yet again. By noontime, it wasn't pretty anymore as I sat there eating my banana puddin.

I hate Monday, for one reason is that indicators work off of Friday's data and the way traders around the world viewed the markets last week. A lot happens over the weekend to change their minds, their agenda, their portfolios. An article in Barons and everyone is going the other way on Monday. The good news is that by controling the risk I was able to get most of it back before the close...not all but most.

It's just not a perfect world is it??????? But, there is tomorrow and we'll be there waiting for opportunity to come....will you?

The story of a tree hugger!!!!


A Cal-ee-for-nia woman, who was a tree hugger and a rabid anti-hunter, purchased a piece of timberland. There was a large tree on one of the highest points in the tract. She wanted to get a good view of the natural splendor of her land so she started to climb the big tree. As she neared the top, she encountered a spotted owl,
which attacked her.

In her haste to escape, she slid down the tree to the ground and got numerous splinters in her nether regions. In considerable pain, she hurried to the nearest country doctor. She told him what an environmentalist and anti-hunter she was, and how she came to get all the splinters. The doctor listened to her story with great patience and then told her to go into the examining room and he would see if he could help her.

She sat and waited for three hours before the doctor reappeared. The angry woman demanded, "What took you so long?" He smiled and then told her, "Well, I had to get permits from the Environmental Protection Agency, the Forest Service, and the Bureau of Land Management before I could remove old-growth timber from a recreational area...and I'm sorry, but they all turned me down."

Tuesday, July 03, 2007

July 4th and it's the little things that makes this country great.


Nothing like a good story.....one that makes you go, WOW...
Well, it was of course, ALL BSski.
I got so many emails that I decided to just delete it and move on, you know, use the "Blog Post-b-Gone" tab and it was easy to pretend it never happened. Thanks Woodie and I will give you all the credit for inventing that one.....:)