Friday was a classic day you don't see that often. It is not uncommon to see an inside bar, just meaning that the current bar is unable to take out the high or low of the last bar or in our case, the setup bar. The most I have seen on a daily basis trading either the ER or ES is 7 inside bars.....so Friday was really pushing the limits on this one. But according to the rules, the first bar setup is still valid until either the high and low are taken out on the same bar to void the setup, or it actually triggers it.
The other point is, that there is nothing that works 100%, if you define rules that can be back studied. Both Friday and today it would have to hard to have made any money trading the first bar trade, it's as simple as that. OleMickey, likes to trade the first 3 bars, and has talked about this setup for quite a while. I really don't take a look at other people setups unless they have been trading for a long time and are solid in their thinking.
So let's take a look at this idea, what if you took the actual first bar trade and reversed if the first bar failed and the third bar triggered......what would be your results if you used the same rules to manage the trade......this I have down some back studies and also been watching it in real time.
Today, you would have gotten that short at 9:39am and had a nice trade under way......just something to study.....cost you nothing except some time.
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