Starting on Friday before the workshop even started, I was talking about Monday being two things, a trend day and a trend day with an upwards bias. I learned from LBR about defining a trend day, opening at the lower end (long) of the range and closing at the upper end of that days range. In fact, you even have to have had the open to be within the 20% of the daily range and the close to be within the top 20%.
Well, first of all, my ideas of it being a trend day and with an upwards bias seemed to have nailed the market......around 3:00pm I started talking and talking about the $TICK. If the $TICK closed above 400 when NYSE closed the odds are that we would trade higher the next day eithty-seven percent of the time. Well, when the big board closed the tick reading was 440. This meant, a trader could hold overnight...maybe not a full position, but you could hold something....according to your trading plan and money management rules.....
Well, this morning, sure enough the market even gapped up and continued to move higher during the first hour and even moved to a new high later in the day.....so, IF you see a trend day and the tick close above 400 (in this case) and you don't hold overnight....you do have a heads up for tomorrow.....LOOK TO BE A BUYER....
Check it out, because a trend occures about twice a month.....
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6 comments:
Dennis,
A few follow up questions.
1. Condition #9 only applies to $PREM?
2. Keltner lenght is 14, what is the factor 1 or 1.5?
Thank you.
Adrian
1. let me find the manual
2. yes on the lenght and the factor is fear.....just kidding......the final answer is really 1
Dennis just to let you know your many humorous comments in the manual are much appreciated.
During your presentation at the work shop my favorite was "I'm this close".
And I'm seeing symmetry all over the 144T. Thanks again.
Dennis,
The NYSE TICK close at 4:00 PM on 10/1/2007 was 389. Where did you an NYSE TICK reading of 440?
Dennis,
As a follow-up to the previous post, I just pulled up the time and sales (only reported in 6 sec increments) for all of the NYSE TICK readings from 3:30 - 4:00 EST on 10/01/07. There wasn't even a reading of 440 during that time.
This is coming from eSignal data which does not do the calculation themselves. They just get the values from $TICK which are generated from the NYSE and passed onto them.
I did some scans of your idea with and without the use of the $TICK as a filter. It seems that the basic premise of an initial follow-through after a trend day is more important than where the $TICK winds up at the close of the trend day. In other words, there aren't that many more days that pop up as candidates when you don't consider the $TICK and those days aren't any better or worse.
But, you're the guy with the mountainside mansion and I'm not, so who am I to question.
This is what I learned taking several of LBR workshops, and during the workshop I showed the tick closing off my charts and it was 440.
don 't really know what to say other then I think it's great you are doing some research on your own to find what can work for you.....
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