Something to think about instead of busting on me....

this is from a post on e-mini_traders.....and it's something to think about....instead of being a sheep, you might want to try and be the Shepard.

Reply-To: e-mini_traders_anon@yahoogroups.com
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References:

Some may get a kick out of this, and it seems to address this point!

A trading friend came over here to trade, not learn, just the fun of doing it with someone, like fishing, it's more fun enjoyed with a pal, than alone! He, not me, hates people "cult leaders", not just in trading, but preachers who need followers in any area. He considers all of them Charles Manson's, so he ate a "big Guru" up by sweeping all the trades he called out (I say called out, because he trades very little, but his follower's don't know that) and all the lemmings took...5 straight and then got bored, and went back to the ES with me, but, after listening to the "Guru" explain every reason (but the right one) why and how the call lost.

It would be a "hoot", if innocent people and their families weren't getting crushed, the "Guru" should have been a television Evangelists!

I had a friend call me to come up and trade together, a guy that was on the floor with me. He didn't want to learn anything, he is as well versed as I hope I am and trades way more contracts than I do, it is just fun to sit and trade next to someone in person then in a web room, as we both have Hotcomm and could do it there if we wanted to. Sitting next to each other, you can talk, joke, reminisce, walk around the yard, joke around, discuss theories, go to lunch, have a few drinks, etc., I think you get the picture, i.e., would you rather visit with you sister over the web, or get together in person? In fact, he is sleeping right now, as we look at the Forex starting at 2:30 a.m. Est. for a set up, because between 2:30 and 3:30 is the time you can get a good move, the Brits. come in at 2:00 and join the Japanese, giving the Forex some "push", then it is usually soft until the U.S. comes in around nineish, so we will try to put a trade on and then go to bed, or in his case, back to bed. When we wake up, we are either up X, Even, or have a profit (maybe still in the trade if the target or loss hasn't been hit yet, but usually your flat and ready to start the day. So while he is sleeping, I am catching up as I didn't do much web stuff after he got here. Well on with story why not to trade thinly traded markets. I always have a bunch of rooms up and running and he hates room leaders, so he asked who I had up, I told him, and one guy with a large following was the room moderator for awhile today calling out the possible entries and had just gotten back from a trip so everyone was excited to have him back. My friend, well versed on "legally stealing stops" like we all are from the "floor" days, wanted to mess with his home coming, he doesn't even trade the products this "leaders" room does, because of what he was about to do. He decided to have more fun messing with this group leader, than trade his usual product, the ES or Forex. So we poured our morning diet cola, cigarettes, and Visine and got ready for what He, not me, considered fun! He knew the method and indicators the room used, plus the "GURU" calls out the developing setups and also others post what they see. So he could easily anticipate the trades, so when the leader was calling out the symptoms of the setup, and says get in at the close of this bar, he would check the current volume, not to confirm the trade, but to calculate how many contracts he would have to come in with to make the trade do the opposite what the calls, at least enough to "steal" the stops, which in this rooms case, aren't very large, because the "leader" teaches and says not to. Like, in the Russell, they use 6 point stops, in the YM, 10 to 15, and if certain things, they "scratch" the trade before they lose the total stop, and if it is a failure in their eyes, go the other way if certain things happens, so he can get them coming and going! We knew how many were in the room, and there is another break away room that trades much the same way, so we had their room up also, telling him about how many contracts were going to come in. Assume we feel the members average a 3 lot, as they have been mistakenly been told to scale out at certain points on the first and second contract and let the third one run with their stops brought to B/E, letting him know where the stops are if they dodge the first try to sweep them, he knows about what the volume will be, i.e. X % of the room members, as they don't all really trade, offset by the decrease in the number of existing contracts already in the volume that will be getting out, and others not in these rooms that will be getting in. With low volume, you don't have to be very accurate. He loads in his Dome, the number of contracts he anticipates will do the damage, the opposite way he knows

the "Guru" is going to call, and he knows they are going in at the close of the bar, so he knows they are all in the trade. He doesn't want to get in too early and push the move the opposite way too early or the Guru will call it off, and it will make the leader look like he is making the right calls, and the whole point of doing is to make the leader look wrong, not take the little lemmings money, although unfortunately, that happens too, but he figures, this guy is only calling trades in the a.m., so they can get their money back in the p.m., and the reality is they wouldn't won anyway, and would not have gotten it back in the p.m. either. So when there is X seconds left for the bar to form, he loads his first batch in to stall the move a little, and when the bar closes, he puts in the rest. If the price starts moving the way the way it was hoped to, he knows his calculations on who many contracts he needed to use, so after a few points, he dumps more in and takes them all out. Then he knows that if a call failed on certain set ups, the group is looking to do something else, so he loads the Dome with a, now more informed guess at the number of contracts he needs to use, and nails them again. Well, he made the leaders first four calls be wrong. They all felt like ducks in a shooting gallery, go one way, wrong, go the other, wrong. Fortunately, after he did it a few times, and listened to all the reasons it was happening, all of which were wrong, he was satisfied and went to the products he normally trades where he could make the kind of money he really wants, and the fun has worn off. What's too bad, all these traders could avoid this if they only did a couple thing differently.

---- Original Message -----
From: Ayman Abu-Mostafa
To: e-mini_traders_anon@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, July 01, 2005 1:25 AM
Subject: [e-mini_traders_anon] Re: FMOC meeting at 2:30

I've seen happen too many times for it to be a coincidence. When
they gun the stops, they gun just about all of them. It's easy
because most of the stops are obvious, e.g., below support or below
yesterday's low.
--Ayman