Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Well it's day 6 on this adventure and it had to come.....the market just popped up enough to trigger a long entry. Then it pullback back and took out the low of the first bar, of course, then it just ran to the moon.....nice got to love life.
The opening range was 22 ticks, but that's not important. We knew that on aa 70 tick chart that it's normal for the stoch to be overbought when we go long, but that's not important. Even the ticks were positive while this was going on and that's not important. Accoring to the rules, we would want to wait until the stoch recycles back down and then goes into overbought to take half off and move to BE. AS we can see, what didn't happen either and that's not important. The market went just low enough to take out the stop "IF" you went by the rules, what ain't important either.
So what is important then....that we did our research of the last 100 or so trade setups, that we took the trade knowing that "X" percentage of the times we would only be able to get half off and then get stopped out at BE. That "X" percentage of the time we would get a great run off the open like we have twice in two weeks. That "X" percentage of the times we would get a pie in the face.....that is trading folks plain and simple....nothing personal just reality.
So what would you do after today.......
1. Call Bob the Market Guru and buy some more filters?
2. Be ready tomorrow for a new opportunity?
3. Sit and stare at the charts and pet your cat?
It's days like this that makes you feel like a piece of cheese.....the cat and the mouse are both out to get ya.....:)
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3 comments:
Dennis-
Could you answer the questions from yesterday about whether or not you wait for the second bar to close?
Great question D, I will add that to the list of qestions that we all have to find an answer for. The blog wouldn't update last night and had an error function when posting......stay tuned
That's the edge-knowing the probabilties of outcomes, and having the security in knowing there is no perfect system, rather good systems are statisitically sound and there will be exceptions (good and bad).
Did the other CCI setups get you in the bull run - these are still being used in conjunction with the FBT.
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