Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Daytrading and it's number 7


Well this chart is starting to look normal now isn't it, no indicators just price...WOW. We had a long trigger and there have been questions about when to actually entry the trade....do I wait for the close of the second bar to make sure that it didn't take out both the high and low........good question.

It was 9:33 when the first bar closed, and the next bar went higher, do you just lean into it, do you wait to see if there is a pullback, do you wait to see if the low is now taken out before you go long if at all. So here are three more questions to be answered as you look back over the last 100 trade setups, about 4 months of data. Personally I just go for it, but I also have been trading this setup for at least 6 years now. You could look at this idea if you like, download a count down clock and set it to 3 minutes....maybe 30 seconds before the close of the second bar you take the trade...maybe it's 15 seconds and so on. Keeping a log and writing down the things you see AT THAT MOMENT IN TIME is very important. The mind is a funny little thing, after the market is closed and you have had a nice dinner and come back in, sit down, open the charts, it's as clear as a bell. That is a great start to seeing it in real time.....patterns....patterns...patterns.

Maybe after the high is taken out like this morning, you wait until the stoch re-cycles back to oversold and buy when it turns up...this is what research will do for you.....build confidence, find things that are just pipe dreams and once in a while the best thing since peanut butter met chocolate.

I do know that at point (A) where the stoch is overbought but we are still at our entry, I would just sit and pray....maybe just a little harder but certainly pray. I most likely would wait for the next cycle and take some off which would be when the low of the last bar was taken out.....

3 comments:

Mike____ said...

hi Dennis: Wisconsin Mike here.

I have cahrt as you have but what STOC and setting is that? fast d, slwo d, raw k and period please?

thanks

Mike

I might try to start to trade this if I have all proper charts, 3 min, 70 tick i see now.

scott said...

Hi,
Been following your blog with interest, especially the "first bar blues". I'm trading (or trying to trade) the Nikkei mini futures here in Japan. So I started researching and testing your method. There have been some tremendous trades/opportunities the past two months. And I also found a small tweak as I was looking for optimal stop position. This also may apply to US futures as well, just haven't had time to "backtest" it.
If the entry bar is the opposite color of the opening bar, it's best to pass on the trade. Most of the trades with this divergence didn't pan out, and the ones. that did were of no consequence. I think no trade is better than getting stopped according this observation. The exception to this seems to be if there are one or more inner bars before the entry comes in. Maybe the inner bars allow the market to settle before picking a direction. This, of course, is based only upon the past two months of N225m. The optimal exit remains to found...

Anonymous said...

scott, don't make a simple system complicated !