You did WHAT in his ear??????

A kindergarten pupil told his teacher he'd found a cat, but it was dead. "How do you know that the cat was dead?" she asked her pupil. "Because I pissed in its ear and it didn't move," answered the child innocently "You did WHAT?" the teacher exclaimed in surprise. "You know," explained the boy, "I leaned over and went 'Pssst!' and it didn't move."

Daytrading the first bar setup....BORING

First bar prints,....then an inside bar...where the low or high is not taken out. So we wait for the third bar to see which way. IT WAS SOUTH!!!!!

The risk today was like nothing...it just dropped thru the low of the first bar and up some cash. Now the question is:
Do you take half off at the first circle because the stoch didn't get all the way into the oversold zone......which is set to 10. The range on the stoch is from zero to 100. With lines at 10 and 90, the range is set so the indicator doesn't play games.

You would have been able to take a profit on either times the stoch went to oversold....the question is do you act on the first one or wait...and wait and wait like being in a dentist office....and wait and think...and wait and think!!!!!
Should I????????
Remember there is "NO" right way...there is "NO" wrong way....it is more about what works for you as an individual then anything else....PEACE!

YEA...we got electric in these here mountains....

Some people just have to much fun don't they???

This is the latest party barge for the Edwards campaign that we found floating along the Haw river in North Carolina...but don't confuse the Haw River with the Hee Haw tv show from the 70's......even if Archie Campbell might look like John's daddy.

Daytrading with your heart pounding hard.....

The first bar today, popped off a short and it wouldn't have matter what you did with the idea that I have shown...it was a loser...plain and simple. Some might not believe this but there are loser once in a while. One time when I was posting about the first bar trade a fellow (olemikey) said he used the first three bar instead of wasting his time on the just the first one...to much noise he said. Well, that is fine, doesn't matter how "YOU" try to skin the cat to me. So I did a back study on the first bar and using the third bar. The biggest thing I found was that the third bar was great if you took a trade from the first bar and got stopped out....with a front end product..you can reverse on a dime. Today, was a first bar loser but a third bar reversal winner and have waiting for the fourth idea in this trade idea for setups and management.

Once we reversed, again using the stoch when it went to overbought and then waited for the low of the last bar to be taken out on the 70 tick chart to take some profit.....moved to BE. By lunch time we had our money back and some dessert cash......I like dessert you know.

So idea number four......what if you used the breakout of the third bar to reverse a losing first bar trade.....what if??????

Nothing like a kids with quick answers

LITTLE TONY ON MATH
A teacher asks her class, "If there are 5 birds sitting on a fence and you shoot one of them, how many will be left?" She calls on little TONY.

He replies, "None, they will all fly away with the first gunshot."

The teacher replies, "The correct answer is 4, but I like your thinking."

Then little TONY says, "I have a question for YOU. There are 3 women sitting on a bench having ice cream:
One is delicately licking the sides of the triple scoop of ice cream.
The second is gobbling down the top and sucking the cone.
The third is biting off the top of the ice cream.

Which one is married?"

The teacher, blushing a great deal, replied, "Well, I suppose the one
that's gobbled down the top and sucked the cone."

To which Little TONY replied, "The correct answer is 'the one with the wedding ring on," but I like your thinking."

Daytrading and it's Day9 on this idea.....

Small gap up, and against the market just didn't like it after those opening orders were filled.......9 point move, how did you do?????

At 9:35 the low was taken out and it never looked back again today. This is why I like to trade the first bar, just for days like this. So after 9 days, we have a couple of questions on the table.

1. How much of a gap can we have before we wouldn't take the first bar trade?
2. How much can the range of the first bar be before we wouldn't take the trade?
3. Can we take the trade on the breakout before the close of the bar after the first bar...and if so, how soon before that close?

A side note.....I use a double smooth stoch with a setting of 10. Now if you are using FT, the indicator can be downloaded for FREEEEEeeeeee.

Late posts because of WHAT!!!!!!!

Last night there was game against Vandy.....it was just over in Music City so off we went. You see we take basketball just a serious as we do football, even women's basketball. Where else in the country does the men's coach paint himself orange and then mixes in the student section to support the girls....only in Tennesseeeeeeee and that's the way we like it baby.

So last night, instead of blogging and playing around I was enjoying life not in the fast lane......just the orange lane.

Daytrading without indicators????

Just the same old drill, watch the first bar, take the breakout.....no indicator, no crap, no news, no chat rooms, no guru, just you and price.

Now today, the market opened and filled the orders from those overnight TV watchin, sucker job holders....then it was show it. Lousy bond sell...lousy home starts and the market was not in a good mood. It took a few minutes with one inside bar before it broke out the lower end at 9:39. Stoch went oversold, then watch the high of the last bar on the 70t, take half off move to breakeven (BE) and hope and pray you got the mother load......

Noah......what are you doing man????

In the year 2006, the Lord came unto Noah, who was now living in the United States , and said, "Once again, the earth has become wicked and overpopulated, and I see the end of all flesh before me. Build another Ark and save 2 of every living thing along with a few good humans." He gave Noah the blueprints, saying, "You have 6 months to build the Ark before I will start the unending rain for 40 days and 40 nights."
Six months later, the Lord looked down and saw Noah weeping in his yard - but no Ark.

"Noah!" He roared , "I'm about to start the rain!
Where is the Ark?"

"Forgive me, Lord," begged Noah, "but things have changed. I needed a building permit. I've been arguing with the inspector about the need for a sprinkler
system. My neighbors claim that I've violated the neighborhood zoning laws by building the Ark in my yard and exceeding the height limitations. We had to go to the Development Appeal Board for a decision.

Then the Department of Transportation demanded a bond be posted for the future costs of moving power lines and other overhead obstructions, to clear the passage for the Ark's move to the sea. I told them that the sea would be coming to us, but they would hear nothing of it.

Getting the wood was another problem. There's a ban on cutting local trees in order to save the spotted owl. I tried to convince the environmentalists that I needed the wood to save the owls - but no go!

When I started gathering the animals, an animal rights group sued me. They insisted that I was confining wild animals against their will. They argued the accommodation was too restrictive , and it was cruel and inhumane to put so many animals in a confined space.

Then the EPA ruled that I couldn't build the Ark until they'd conducted an environmental impact study on your proposed flood.

I'm still trying to resolve a complaint with the Human Rights Commission on how many minorities I'm supposed to hire for my building crew.

Immigration and Naturalization are checking the green-card status of most of the people who want to work.

The trades unions say I can't use my sons. They insist I have to hire only Union workers with Ark-building experience.

To make matters worse, the IRS seized all my assets, claiming I'm trying to leave the country illegally with endangered species.

So, forgive me, Lord, but it would take at least 10 years for me to finish this Ark."

Suddenly the skies cleared, the sun began to shine, and a rainbow stretched across the sky. Noah looked up in wonder and asked, "You mean you're not going to destroy the world?"

"No," said the Lord.
"The government beat me to it."

Daytrading and it's number 7

Well this chart is starting to look normal now isn't it, no indicators just price...WOW. We had a long trigger and there have been questions about when to actually entry the trade....do I wait for the close of the second bar to make sure that it didn't take out both the high and low........good question.

It was 9:33 when the first bar closed, and the next bar went higher, do you just lean into it, do you wait to see if there is a pullback, do you wait to see if the low is now taken out before you go long if at all. So here are three more questions to be answered as you look back over the last 100 trade setups, about 4 months of data. Personally I just go for it, but I also have been trading this setup for at least 6 years now. You could look at this idea if you like, download a count down clock and set it to 3 minutes....maybe 30 seconds before the close of the second bar you take the trade...maybe it's 15 seconds and so on. Keeping a log and writing down the things you see AT THAT MOMENT IN TIME is very important. The mind is a funny little thing, after the market is closed and you have had a nice dinner and come back in, sit down, open the charts, it's as clear as a bell. That is a great start to seeing it in real time.....patterns....patterns...patterns.

Maybe after the high is taken out like this morning, you wait until the stoch re-cycles back to oversold and buy when it turns up...this is what research will do for you.....build confidence, find things that are just pipe dreams and once in a while the best thing since peanut butter met chocolate.

I do know that at point (A) where the stoch is overbought but we are still at our entry, I would just sit and pray....maybe just a little harder but certainly pray. I most likely would wait for the next cycle and take some off which would be when the low of the last bar was taken out.....

Vistors all day long and trucks and stuff

Usually this fellow comes around at night to check out the local fast food joint, but today he is dumpster diving....key word here is STAY CLEAR!!!!!

During the course of any given day, trucks are coming and going as material continue to pile up, speaking of piling up....we are up to two Johnny on the Spots. The one on the right is called biscuits and gravy and the other one is referred to as rice and beans.....

We even have a new bobcat operator, just don't hit the truck again.....OK.

Mr. and Ms Duck bought the kids by the other day on the their way to a watering hole.

Meanwhile the plumber is working on a water fountain as he installs shut off values.....or he might be building a space ship somewhere in this closet.....:)

Stock Trading for dummies......

These people spam the crap out the us, everyday, and there are a few thousand that fall for it. WOW, I mean just look at this chart. It's just pure magic, sell the red dots and buy the blue now that is simple enough for an old stump jumper like me.

Of course, there is a problem, those three little circles I drew in. If I understand stop placement and using computers to find the spot to place them at, then I would have been stopped out. Now the real problem is, how many stocks just trend like this, because I don't own any. Mine slop and chop until I'm brain dead.

And besides, I tried this product and just don't have the time at night to run the updates and curve fit it.......do you????

Daytrading and being a trader......instead of being BOB

Greetings
Recently, in our chat room somebody asked why we use Standard Error Price Bands as opposed to Standard Deviation Bands, ala Bollinger Bands and what is the difference. I always try to avoid those discussions because it gets very complicated ... very complicated. In fact, it confuses the issue more than anything else, but, for those of you having trouble sleeping at night we'll explore the differences between standard deviation and the standard error of a value.

In probability and statistics, the standard deviation of a probability distribution, random variable, or population or multiset of values is a measure of the spread of its values. It is defined as the square root of the variance. In probability and statistics, the standard deviation of a probability distribution, random variable, or population or multiset of values is a measure of the spread of its values. It is defined as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is the root mean square (RMS) deviation of the values from their arithmetic mean. For example, in the population {4, 8}, the mean is 6 and the standard deviation is 2. This may be written: {4, 8} ≈ 6±2. In this case 100% of the values in the population are within one standard deviation of the mean.

Standard deviation is the most common measure of statistical dispersion, measuring how widely spread the values in a data set are. If the data points are all close to the mean, then the standard deviation is close to zero. If many data points are far from the mean, then the standard deviation is far from zero. If all the data values are equal, then the standard deviation is zero.

In statistics, a confidence interval (CI) for a population parameter is an interval between two numbers with an associated probability p which is generated from a random sample of an underlying population, such that if the sampling was repeated numerous times and the confidence interval recalculated from each sample according to the same method, a proportion p of the confidence intervals would contain the population parameter in question. Confidence intervals are the most prevalent form of interval estimation. It must be noted that a confidence interval is not in general equivalent to a (Bayesian) credible interval. The common error of equating the two is known as the prosecutor's fallacy. If U and V are statistics (i.e., observable random variables) whose probability distribution depends on some unobservable parameter θ and being divided by x (where x is a number between 0 and 1) then the random interval (U, V) is a "(100·x)% confidence interval for θ". The number x (or 100·x%) is called the confidence level or confidence coefficient. In modern applied practice, most confidence intervals are stated at the 95% level (Zar 1984).

In statistics, the standard error of a value is the estimated standard deviation of the process by which it was generated, including adjusting for sample size. In other words the standard error is the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample statistic (such as sample mean, sample proportion or sample correlation). The notation for standard error can be any one of SE, SEM (for standard error of measurement or mean), or SE. Standard errors provide simple measures of uncertainty in a value and are often used because:

* If the standard error of several individual quantities is known then the standard error of some function of the quantities can be easily calculated in many cases;
* Where the probability distribution of the value is known, they can be used to calculate an exact confidence interval; and
* Where the probability distribution is unknown, relationships like Chebyshev’s or the Vysochanskiï-Petunin inequality can be used to calculate a conservative confidence interval
* As the sample size tends to infinity the central limit theorem guarantees that the sampling distribution of the mean is asymptotically normal.

Well, alrighty then! I hope that clarifies the difference between Standard Deviation and Standard Error analysis and now you can see why we are using standard error price bands and why I stay out of chat rooms these days.

Well it's day 6 on this adventure and it had to come.....the market just popped up enough to trigger a long entry. Then it pullback back and took out the low of the first bar, of course, then it just ran to the moon.....nice got to love life.

The opening range was 22 ticks, but that's not important. We knew that on aa 70 tick chart that it's normal for the stoch to be overbought when we go long, but that's not important. Even the ticks were positive while this was going on and that's not important. Accoring to the rules, we would want to wait until the stoch recycles back down and then goes into overbought to take half off and move to BE. AS we can see, what didn't happen either and that's not important. The market went just low enough to take out the stop "IF" you went by the rules, what ain't important either.

So what is important then....that we did our research of the last 100 or so trade setups, that we took the trade knowing that "X" percentage of the times we would only be able to get half off and then get stopped out at BE. That "X" percentage of the time we would get a great run off the open like we have twice in two weeks. That "X" percentage of the times we would get a pie in the face.....that is trading folks plain and simple....nothing personal just reality.

So what would you do after today.......
1. Call Bob the Market Guru and buy some more filters?
2. Be ready tomorrow for a new opportunity?
3. Sit and stare at the charts and pet your cat?

It's days like this that makes you feel like a piece of cheese.....the cat and the mouse are both out to get ya.....:)

Daytrading the first bar setup AGAIN!!!!

If you remember, the reason I started to trade the first bar setup was to get out of a slump, a period of time where you can't get anything right and end up spending the day talking in chat rooms and drawing lines on your charts. But as I found out there is also a good second reason to trade the first bar setup. Today was a slam dunk....because there ain't no reason to just go short on the open, no pullback, no CCI(none of the 57 different setups)reason, no bollinger bands, no Maria B...nothing. Oh yea somewhere around the 785 area if you are a student of LBR there was a nice flag formation to work with but that was it baby. In fact, the boys using the 3m CCI would be looking to go long on a Vegas trade.....nice one and THANKS

Even after you entry the first bar breakout, meaning that the low was taken out without taking out the high....there wasn't even any heat in the trade....well except for about a minute and then someone pulled the rug out from under the market....

So let's talk for a moment about that bear flag formation and the idea behind it. The market is selling off and starts to move sideways just after the open for about 20 minutes. This is where the buyers were drawing a line in the sand, if you like.
The only question is....who will run out of funds first....can the seller over power the buyers or will the buyer give it their best shot and we rally from this low. Today, the buyer gave up and when they did you can see just how wide those bar are for the next 9 minutes as once the lows were taken out, they not only covered their trades for a loss, but they reversed all engines and started shorting....which only added fuel to the selloff. Another flag, another selloff......just a simple function of the market and people getting trapped on the wrong side.

Which brings us back to using indicators, I know, I know, you bought this indicator package from Bob, the Market Guru....and for some reason believe it's the holy grail...you haven't made any real money with it YET....but man are you so close you can feel it...RIGHT.
More on this later in another blog.

Daytrading and we have questions??????

Trading intra day is like a puzzle, but there is just one thing, the puzzle is different for all of us. Just like we are all different....we all have to find what works for us. So far this past week we have looked at the first bar trade on a 3m chart.

From that we have already found two questions:
1. How much can the gap be on the opening bar before I would pass on the trade since the market on large gaps can be a little wild.

2. How much can the range be on the first bar before I would again pass on the trade. Can you handle a 2 or 3 or maybe, one day, a 4 full point range on the first bar, because of the risk I would have to personally assume. Of course, that depends if you use the low of the first bar as a stop on a long and vice versa on a short. Please tell me you trade with a stop....PLEASE!!!!

3. The next question that needs to be addressed is, could I front run the close of the second bar and when.........So we will take a look at this during the next week. So relax, follow along, takes notes, do research, play on a sym trader....but if you lean into a trade without doing these things with real money....you need to be spanked...

We live in the mountains and there is a mountain of daywall that needs hung....mountains and mountains.

The day after the accident, they started out talking about just how high it was to the top of gable ends......the final answer was 34 feet.

Two drywallers had fallen from the top of the octagon, because they had just drove two nails for bracing and both walked out on carrying a sheet of drywall. The nails didn't hold. Accidents do happen but this was just being stupid.

When the beams were installed, 1/2 inch was left between the floor joist and the beams so the drywall could slide in....

I watched them like a hawk, because my problems here would just keep adding up.....there isn't enough molding to cover all this...

Once they saw I was checking their work, after each sheet, they slowed down and did it correctly...

Which lead to this conversation, You know we are paid by the square foot and this guy is making us go back and it's taking longer...we need more money

Woodies CCI Club....I can't trade without a chat room ...can you??????

So there I was sitting my office and was in a trade, had gotten to BE, had my target set and decided to log in and listen. Trading can be a lonely adventure to say the least, but no website...which means how do you log into the chat room....????

Now I'm worried, what if something happened, so I checked around using my favorites and there wasn't anything on the userplane...well except chat rooms about older gay guys and someone being spunky......I checked with eminitraders.com and not a word about the once powerful chat room...(if you remember back, TraderDave flew along with the Woodshed and us into Vegas for the second universal world CCI conference).
I went into r7.com another one of Woodies long long time friends and not a word about the club, zip...........zero, dang it I need a chat room fix...and badly!!!!

I did find a site....Traders helping Traders dot com.....but nothing about the club....where oh where could they be??????

OK OK.......let's talk about it.....

Sometimes, you feel like you stuck your foot in your mouth at times, what I would like to do with this blog is simple. To share ideas for others to test out, plain and simple, but I don't want to just say, "Hey, these are the exact rules and don't change anthing mister." Why, because we are all different, we all need to find our own trading style that works for just ourselves.

So if I give you all the exact things I use to trade and manage a trade and you just try and follow along....well, I know that wouldn't work and I am only cheating you out of "you" finding what can turn your life around....so to speak.

So if you are studying the first bar trade, the first two things you need to work on are:
If there is a gap, then how big of a gap can I allow and still consider a trade setup. Secondly, how much of a range on the first bar can I allow and also still consider a trade setup. You will only know the answer to this by keeping a real time log and tracking it.

Daytrading the Russell thanks goodness it's Friday

The second bar today, took out the low of the first bar without taking out the high for a short, that was pretty simple.

Then dropping down to a 70 tick chart, when the stoch went to oversold and the price took out the high of the last bar, it was half off and move to BE. The trade lasted a whole 4 minutes as the market decided to slop and clop around today.

But again, follow the rules that I use, managed it the best I could and made some lunch money......just no dessert again today.

Well, we are still working on a dream.........

No matter how much planning goes into any project, there is always something that you miss, we missed 6 2x12's Douglas Firs. SO, after they came, back came Jackie to hand hue and match up what he had already done.

Then off to the sanding and stain department, where the guys have spent most of their summer.

A 4 car garage does come in handy when you have this much stuff to sand down and give at least 2 coats of stain and 3 coats of varnish....

The goldens like to take a "cat" nap from time to time but have to lay on top of each other.....it must be a sister thing.

The cedar shake siding is going well and we are down to just the left side of the front of the house....and they are out of here....

Windows and posts and flashing and things have slowed them down, guess that is why the saved this part of the house until last....oh well.

This is why we trade the first bar.........

There are two reasons that made the first bar come to life for me, the first was to stop being an analyst and sit there playing with the charts and reading chat room text.....the second was to get into a trade, off the open before the market made the move of the day. Today, after two days of spinning my tires, it happened. Now there are a few problems, first we talked about just how much of an opening range you could handle without passing on the trade and today that range was 4 full points in the Russell2000. Then we had 6 inside bars, where neither the high or the low was taken out...and we had to wait and wait.

But once the low was taken out without taking out the high, we were short, then came the pullback and all you could think about was closing the small gap at 792.70 or so and taking you out......BUT if you live and die by the rules, at 9:56 to 9:58 the stoch was oversold and allowing the high of the last bar to be the trailing stop before going to BE....you got more then lunch money today......and then the drop into hell.......what if you had moved out to the 3m chart and used the same idea of allowing the high of the last bar to be a trailing stop.....would take have worked????