First bar trade....today was a WINNER.....

What a difference a day makes, when you just stick to your plan and no matter what yesterday handed you......you stood tall and kept on haulin.

The first bar trade today was a winner after a total loss yesterday, then we had a nice 50CCI ZLR that triggered and the rest was history.....ZLR all day long and only hope those who love me the most didn't try any shorts today. The secret sauce or spread just got stronger all day. We have several auto trading systems, and today the trend following system was all over this one. The slop and chop system did not do well, but that is trading.....

I hear thru the grape vine that Woodie is now talking about puppet traders, WOW.....nice to see that all the puppets he uses to boost his room numbers are somehow learning to trade.......

First bar trade....today was a LOSER.....

In the real world of trading you will have days like today, oh yes you will, no doubt about it, actually about 38% of the time..
The first bar trade was a flat out loser and boy do I hate buying and getting the high tick of the day, yep got to love that noise.
Now if you were doing olemickey first trade of the day, well you would have been fine and dandy, he uses the first three bar for his breakout trade. I marked it up with the green lines and it worked well as you can see.
So which one do you do, since the first bar trade, do you move on to the next magic secret sauce setup someone else has......or do you just keep doing it day after day after day? Well, I guess that depends if you searching and hoping for the holy grail or if you have found it.
The holy grail is different for each of us simply because we are all different, I know I am different from you, for sure, and you are different from DrBob, JeanYus, Dharma, Gio, wb_NJ or everyone else in the chat rooms. We just need to find what works for you and trade the living daylights out of it.

Security.....Red Alert!!!!!

For a number of reasons, and some have been seen in this blog, I am having the entire property hard wired against anyone who might think they can come on the property for no good.


Without disclosing any real details about what is being installed, it has the ability to determine if you are a squrriel, raccoon, bear, deer and even a human that is looking for trouble.


The interesting part is how fast these guys work...they make government employee look really good.....but they are digging their little hearts out all the way around the 9 acres we have.


This is the puppy I want to watch work it's way thru trees and brush. Digging a 6 inch wide trench so the cable can be laid in, then 6 inches of crusher-run stone and filled with dirt.


The fireplace people was started to work on their part of the house now as they delivery pipe for the chimmey. The SECURITY shed is also seen in the background as we have 24/7 full time staff on duty at all times now....


The entire fireplace system is done with steel studs and backer board double taped and no wood showing or even within 6 inches of the backer board. We will also have different devices to monitor, heat, fire and so on inside the fireplace shaft.


This shot is from the fourth floor showing each of the pipes running up to the roof system.


The second and third floor will have two fireplaces back to back...this is from the Great Room or formal living room....


The pipe guys are busy running pipe everywhere, to the kitchen, each floor will have it's own furnace and there will also be a backup generator system so I can trade in the dark.....hehe


When I say they are running this stuff everywhere....I mean it. We are also using black pipe which I believe is the best pipe out there for gas.


Well it took them a couple of days to work the pipe around the house but they did a nice job, here Mike is finishing the last piece.......and with the weather turning cold tonight.....just wish there was a roof on this sucker.

Thank you for investing in US!!!! is what they said.

There are 4 Boys and Girls Clubs in Sevier County and we are trying to build another one here in Gatlinburg. Tonight, they had a buffet dinner for everyone who has been helping raise funds for the new building.
Luke and the Lukettes were there singing there songs of joy of love. Now before you get to excited about this new group, they are about 10-12 year olds, 5 girls and Luke and they were good.
About 8 kids spoke about how "THE CLUB" has changed their lives for the positive. Someone was busting on me about building a really big house and should just give that money to the poor and homeless and live in a double wide. I believe you should help those who need it...not those who except it....

We help at least a dozen organizations not only here but all across the country, and I put my money (receipts) where my mouth is.....I don't just pretend to support a group to make myself look better to others. If you believe that you should give all your money to the homeless and poor then please do that to the Nth degree. But don't tell me what I should be doing.....and also using an anonymouse Id.

Another day.....another first bar WOHOAAA trade

The first bar trade was again a nice winner and with very little heat, she just dropped into 45 minute support. When I get into one of these trades and we move into higher time frame support I watch the internals closely....looking for either three spikes down or even more important....a spike in the prem to a new low for the day without the tick or tiki.

The reason is simple, that is the floor pushing and the cash wasn't following along and you can expect a bounce.....


One problem I really have is when people tell you that you don't need price to confirm a lagging indicator. YEA, YEA, I know the first thing is that they are told it's a leading indicator, but how can it be a leading indicator if it is looking at the last 6, 14 or 50 bars. But here is a classic example, the secret sauce spread was red, the 50CCI was red, the turbo (6) had come above 100 and was setting up my ideal setup for a short.

So there is two things here, first you might be trying to front run the close and with 15 seconds, left give or take, on the three minute bar decide to just take a short and you would have shorted around the top of the bar with the cyan line. Or after the bar closes and the turbo turns down and you decide to short the market again you might have gotten short about the same price level.

But the market continued to move higher, so what stop did you have in mind.....5 ticks, 8 ticks, 12 ticks, well try around a 15 against you. Do you or can you take that kind a heat to see if this will become a winner. Remember, the turbo is still pointing down so even in hindsight this was still a valid hold. When the price did turn down it only came back to around the 662 even area. So lots of pain without any gain.

BUT, if you had used the idea of a trigger, where the low of the setup needs to be taken out, you wouldn't have ever taken this trade.....SO DID YOU????????

We call them the ROCKERS.........

They started stone casing the house on the west side, each stone had to be carried from down on the drive or from the top along with their mortar mix.


Everyday around 9:00am they showed up with a load of materials in their trailer. It only took them about 4 days to get over the hump on the west side.


With in 6 days, working up to about 7:30-8:00pm they had completed the west side and moved over to the other side and started right in.


Again working 12-14 hours days, they continue to climb the 35 foot walls...higher and higher.


About half the stones needed cut or trimmed as they are placed, a man, this wife and two brothers are the best rockers I have ever seen on a daily basis.


The garage doors are 10 feet high by 9 feet wide, even my mother in law can get thru this puppies. Over the arches we will have one row of red brick to break it up a little....but they have been working on the front and the back of the house at the same time......hoping to be done by Thanksgiving so they can move inside.

Time and Price..........

Well I have three trade setups"
The first bar trade and have been talked to death.
The ideal setup.....50CCI with a ZLR in the direction of the secret sauce.
The scalper setup....a collection of scalping ideas.....ticks at zero with symmetry,
crown patterns, just to mention a few.......


So this morning the first bar trade had me short on the open, then a bull crown pattern developed and even those in TradersHaven were talking about it....MarkB and Folls amoung others. I really didn't feel like trading today and was in no mood for scalping so as I watched the spread getting weaker, the trin moving higher and the other toys I have shared...I did a quick time and price thingie to see where the market could go. And this is where most people have a problem, I remember a comment that LBR made...something like...Well, if you draw enough line then price will reach one of them. So here I was with four points of interest.


I was looking for a hit at point "A", but price just kept drifting lower to sideways. I knew that time and price couldn't make it to "B" around 11:15 just to far to go and time was running out. The market could drift, heaven knows it felt like it to "C", but when it dropped to "D" I wasn't paying attention because using this method of trading I would be looking to cover the trade at 12:15 and we had about 20 minutes.


Then price stalled again and started drifting sideways past my timing thingie. So I cover the trade out of boredom and left for my second job....as we get ready for the timber framing guys tomorrow.

It's that time of the year.......don't leaf me!!!!!

The trees have become an artist dream this past week with oranges, red and bright yellow, this means that it's time to move inside and work for a couple of months....hey where is the roof...


The city had placed a three quarter inch water pipe into the property....but ever try and take a shower and not have enough water pressure????? So I decided we needed a big water line.


The city showed up one day, with a fleet or trucks and their backhoe ready to take on the world. The first thing they did was....TEAR UP THE ROAD....


There is a rule that if you want to have water to water plants, flower and grass you pay about 1/3 for the water since it doesn't have to go thru the sewer plant later.
They put in a new 2 inch pipe so the showers are strong and kept the 3/4" inch pipe for watering the plants.......


The property on two sides is next to the Great Smoky Mountain National Park and we have wild life everywhere......since this spring we have watched this pair of fawns and their mom.......grow up.


We continue to cut grooves so later they can slide the drywall in and have a nice smooth finish.


Of course, it doesn't pay to stand around if you're short......rotfl.


We are building a special UT room to blow away everybody that comes to the house....here they are putting in supports for the post and beams in the second floor....and on and on it goes. Tomorrow, the timber frame guys are coming back to start putting the posts and beams over the great room...so stay tuned.

JUST A SIDE NOTE: Some think that by me posting about the house is some kind of a ego problem......well I have relatives, along time friends in different states and very long time trading buddies that really like to see what is going on....this dream has been in the works for at least 4 years.

Crown pattern triggered.....how sweet was this one

I'm in heaven......heaven......and dancing cheek to cheek while is see this pattern.
We all like to trade some kind of a pattern, from a breakout triangle all the way down to a mittens. In January 2004 I shared one of my favorite patterns in Active Trader magazine using the internals to back it up...or trigger it.

The crown pattern is a defined set of fibonacci relationships as the market tests and then retests support or resistance. Leg C to D is the same as the leg from A to B, also C to D is .618 of B to C. You read the article and get the inside scoop on this pattern but it never triggers or finishes setting up until the $TIKI go below -24 for a long like it did on Thursday, (Point E). Now that is some secret sauce....just for you.

Octagon framing

I bought a cherry picker after the fire once I saw just how much it costs to rent one of these suckers for a period of time. At the time, I didn't think it would be used more as a crane then a cherry picker...but what the heck it works.....


Each section of the octagon is build and then lifted into place. They cut the top and bottom plates by using the existing octagon framing from the third floor as a pattern.


The cherry picker has all it's control up on the stand and the only problem is....it's jerky instead of smooth like a crane.


One by one, each piece is lifted, moved and placed, but then it has to be nailed at the top and bottom along with the sides....anyone want to walk out and nail these in????


It wasn't long before the last one was being placed.......


And there we are, finished framing the fourth floor, after they brace, filled in some blocking we will be ready for roof trusses.....Anyone see the Tyvek around???


As they work framing the fourth floor, others are working on placing windows on the first floor, each is the other octagon having their windows put in..


The first plumber was flushed the other week because they were spending to much time drinking coffee and talking. The new plumber is working on getting everything thru the hollow core panels and the concrete floor on the second level. You can see caps and a black top on some of the pipes...this is done so it can be air up and left over night, if the gauge is the same as yesterday then all the pipes that were not destroyed because of the fire as "OK" and can be used.

Fourth Floor...HERE we come

We finally finished screwing down the Adventech for the fourth floor and were ready to begin framing.


In order to get up and down easy we had to build a set of stringers........


It's always a good idea to have a brace about half way up, so it doesn't shake as you are carrying up supplies.......


I know a lot of traders love to trade out of a triangle, so here is your chance to get as many as you like ...just email me with the amount.


When we started building the house, they delivered supplies in a 10 year old truck and now that his guy is here at least once a day if not twice...it's nice to see he is driving a brand spanking new one.....HUMMMMM......


It didn't take them long to have the first panel ready to set up.....I was drinking a cup of coffee and eating a donut and almost missed it.


But I did make it upstairs before the panel was finished being nailed......OK, I might have been huffing and puffing.....but I made it...just the same.